Introduction
With U.S. tariffs at record highs and inflation concerns still gripping American consumers, this CNBC article caught attention for claiming that China’s exports are rising, despite tariffs intended to constrain them. Readers asked: are these new trade restrictions hurting China—or American shoppers? This fact-check examines the key claims related to tariffs, export behavior, and job fallout.
Historical Context
The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018 under President Donald Trump, when escalating tariffs were imposed in retaliation for trade imbalances, alleged intellectual property theft, and national security concerns. While initial tariff rounds had moderate rates around 10-25%, more recent actions dramatically raised tariffs—by 2025, some reached as high as 145%. Historically, such trade barriers aim to shield domestic industries, but they also risk raising consumer prices and affecting global trade flows.
Fact-Check: Specific Claims
Claim #1: China’s overall exports jumped 8.1% year-over-year in April 2025, despite U.S. tariffs
This claim is accurate based on data from China’s General Administration of Customs. China’s exports in April, measured in U.S. dollars, rose 8.1% from the previous year, significantly beating the 1.9% growth forecast by economists polled by Reuters. The rise was largely driven by increased exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union, offsetting steep drops in exports to the U.S.
However, while the figures are accurate, the article omits critical context: the exporters’ surge likely reflects shipments carried out under older contracts or rerouted through neighboring economies—tactics used to bypass direct tariff exposure, not a sign that the tariffs are ineffective. Economist Zhiwei Zhang’s comment in the article supports this interpretation.
Source: China Customs
Claim #2: U.S. tariffs have reached 145% on Chinese imports, and China has retaliated with 125% tariffs
This claim exaggerates the extent of current tariff levels. While certain product categories (like electric vehicles) recently received tariff rates exceeding 100%, claiming a blanket 145% U.S. tariff across all imports is misleading. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), average effective rates on Chinese imports—including exemptions—are significantly lower overall. Similarly, while China has enacted retaliatory tariffs, they vary based on the sector and average closer to 30-50% across several goods categories.
The article should have clarified that these headline rates apply to selected categories and are not uniform. Omitting this nuance overstates the impact on all goods and skews the perception of mutual punishment.
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, Peterson Institute for International Economics
Claim #3: Tariffs will cost China up to 16 million jobs connected to U.S.-bound exports
This claim lacks sufficient support. The article attributes it to Goldman Sachs, stating China could lose “16 million jobs, or 2% of its labor force” tied to America-bound goods. However, this projection has not been made public by Goldman Sachs in any 2025 report we could trace. Moreover, China’s labor sector remains opaque, and analysts are divided on the real employment impact.
While it is plausible tariffs reduce export-sector employment, stating a definitive figure like 16 million jobs without publicly verifiable evidence represents a case of “insufficient evidence.” Readers should interpret this projection cautiously unless more transparent analysis is made available.
Source: Insufficient evidence
Claim #4: China is dumping excess inventory by increasing exports to Southeast Asia and Europe
This claim has contextual support but misrepresents trade rebalancing as “dumping.” According to World Trade Organization (WTO) standards, dumping involves selling goods below cost or below domestic market prices to destroy competition—allegations that require rigorous investigation. While Chinese exports to ASEAN rose 20.8% and shipments to the EU rose 8.3% in April 2025, there is no verified evidence these exports are priced unfairly.
Redirecting exports in response to tariffs is part of normal trade dynamics. Calling it “dumping” without evidence reduces the claim’s credibility and could spread an unjustified narrative.
Source: World Trade Organization – Anti-Dumping Information
Conclusion
Overall, the article accurately reports certain data points, particularly the rise in Chinese exports and the fall of trade with the U.S. However, it omits critical economic context and exaggerates tariff impacts with unverified or misleading figures. While tariffs have clearly influenced trade behavior, the article overstates direct effects on jobs and mischaracterizes legal trade redirection as dumping. Readers are right to question the real winners and losers here—current evidence shows U.S. tariffs are likely raising prices domestically, while China adapts by rerouting goods rather than collapsing under trade pressure.
Encourage Readers to Take Action
Want to verify more claims like this? Download the free DBUNK app today to fight misinformation one article at a time. Join us as we bring truth into focus—every click, every day.
Link to Original Article
Read the original article on CNBC
