Introduction
The article was flagged for fact-checking after it made multiple assertions about Russia’s intensified military activity and alleged preparations for a major renewed assault on Ukraine. A concerned reader specifically asked: What evidence is there to support the claim that Russia is preparing for a major assault on Ukraine? This fact-check will analyze that claim and others to assess their accuracy and context.
Historical Context
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, fighting has ebbed and flowed with shifting front lines. Ukraine mounted a counteroffensive in 2023, reclaiming some territories, but Russian forces have maintained control of key regions in the east and south. Peace talks have repeatedly failed. As of 2025, Western nations remain committed to providing Ukraine with military assistance amidst ongoing battles and renewed Russian troop build-ups.
Claim #1: “Kyiv believes Moscow is preparing for a major renewed assault, with tens of thousands of troops believed to have gathered along the border with Ukraine.”
This claim is accurate and based on verifiable intelligence. In late March and early April 2025, multiple Ukrainian officials and Western intelligence sources confirmed that Russia had mobilized substantial reinforcements near the Ukrainian border, particularly in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Satellite imagery reviewed by Reuters and The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed the presence of large Russian military formations, including infantry, armor, and logistics units. Additionally, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in an interview with the Associated Press that front-line pressure had increased sharply, consistent with a preparatory phase before an offensive.
Claim #2: “Fighting between Ukrainian and Russian troops has intensified in the past week, [with] assaults on the front line increased by 30%.”
This claim is supported by statements from Ukrainian military officials, including General Staff briefings shared publicly on official government platforms. According to Ukraine’s General Staff updates from the first week of April 2025, the number of Russian ground assaults notably rose across several axes, including Avdiivka and Kupiansk. Open-source warfare analysts corroborated this trend. However, while the 30% figure has been widely quoted by Ukrainian media and officials, external verification is imprecise due to the lack of consistent public battle data from both sides. Therefore, while the direction of the claim is accurate, the precise 30% figure should be interpreted as an estimate rather than a fully verified statistic.
Claim #3: “Earlier this week, Zelensky publicly acknowledged for the first time that his troops are active in Russia’s Belgorod region.”
This claim is true. On April 7, 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during a press conference that Ukrainian forces were operating in Belgorod under the strategy of “pre-emptive actions to reduce threats on the border.” This marked the first official acknowledgment from Kyiv regarding such cross-border military activities in Belgorod. Previous actions in the region had been attributed to Russian volunteer units opposing the Kremlin or left unconfirmed by Ukraine. The confirmation signals a shift in Kyiv’s military calculus and willingness to strike beyond its borders to expose vulnerabilities in Russian defenses.
Claim #4: “It is thought these assaults are part of a spring offensive by Russia.”
There is moderate evidence to support this claim, though the timing and scope of any formal Russian “spring offensive” remain speculative. Analysts at the UK Ministry of Defence and ISW have indicated that Russian troop movements and logistical build-up in recent months resemble patterns observed before previous offensives. However, as of this fact-check, no official announcement of a coordinated spring offensive has been issued by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Instead, the increase in attacks is occurring gradually across multiple sectors rather than constituting a major, centralized campaign. Therefore, while the conditions suggest an impending larger assault, it would be premature to label it a confirmed “spring offensive” without stated Russian objectives or operational cohesion.
Conclusion
Overall, the article’s reporting is consistent with publicly available data and government statements. The claim that Russia is preparing for a major renewed assault is supported by credible satellite images, troop movements, and Ukrainian military assessments. Additional claims about increased fighting and Ukraine’s military activity in Belgorod are also verifiable. However, the article would benefit from more concrete sourcing and independent verification for numerical estimates like the “30% increase” in assaults. The framing of events is generally neutral and avoids overstatement, though occasionally leans on official sources without critical scrutiny. No significant bias was detected, and the reporting presents a reliable high-level summary of evolving military dynamics.
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