Introduction
The BBC’s article on the Shangri-La Dialogue frames the forum as a critical venue for U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry, especially in the Indo-Pacific. One key claim stood out to readers and flagged this article for fact-checking: Has China truly surpassed the United States in naval power, or is this assertion based solely on ship numbers without accounting for technological capabilities, global deployment, and logistical strength?
Historical Context
For decades, the United States has maintained strategic dominance in the Pacific through its network of alliances and the forward-deployment of military assets, especially its navy. After the Cold War, the U.S. Navy remained unmatched globally. In recent years, China has aggressively modernized its military, with an emphasis on the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). These changes have sparked debate over which nation holds the true upper hand in naval strength and whether metrics such as ship count sufficiently portray maritime dominance.
Claim #1: “China’s navy has the largest number of warships in the world, outstripping the United States.”
This claim is technically true. As of the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2023 report on China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has approximately 370 battle-force ships, compared to around 291 for the U.S. Navy. However, ship number alone does not determine naval supremacy.
The U.S. retains a significant technological and logistical edge. Its aircraft carriers — 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers — remain unmatched and offer global reach. In contrast, China’s two operational carriers are conventionally powered and limited in range. In addition, many of China’s vessels are smaller, less versatile, and focused on regional use, whereas U.S. ships routinely conduct global operations.
Source: U.S. Department of Defense
Claim #2: “China deploys state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles and fifth-generation warplanes like the J-20.”
This is accurate. China has made significant advancements in its missile and air capabilities. Its DF-17 hypersonic missile and the fifth-generation Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter are operational components of its modernized forces. However, the efficiency and combat-readiness of these systems are still under analysis.
The U.S. still leads in stealth technology and combat-tested aircraft, with over 600 F-35 fighters operational across the globe. China’s J-20 fleet is newer and smaller, and though technically advanced, its battlefield efficacy has yet to be fully tested.
Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
Claim #3: “The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet can no longer claim to have naval supremacy in the region.”
This statement reflects an opinion rather than a concrete measure and lacks supporting data. Although China’s growing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities — including missile systems like the DF-21D — make operations near its coast riskier for U.S. forces, the 7th Fleet still possesses unparalleled global logistics, carrier-based aviation, and regional coordination with allies like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines.
Additionally, China lacks the overseas bases, blue-water refueling capacity, and global coordination networks that define true naval supremacy. While the balance is tightening in coastal Asian waters, the full spectrum of naval capabilities — not just proximity threats — underpins regional supremacy.
Source: CNA Analysis of 7th Fleet Readiness
Claim #4: “China frequently challenges planes and ships transiting the South China Sea… when the rest of the world considers this to be international waters.”
This claim is correct and supported by international law and ongoing disputes. China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea were largely invalidated by a 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which found that China’s “nine-dash line” claim has no legal basis under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Despite the ruling, China has continued militarization and enforcement attempts in disputed regions of the South China Sea, often confronting vessels from other nations. The U.S., U.K., and allies conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in defiance of China’s claims, and such confrontations have increased.
Source: BBC Reporting on 2016 South China Sea Ruling
Conclusion
The article correctly highlights China’s impressive military modernization, especially its significant increase in naval ship count and missile range. However, it lacks critical context about global power projection, alliance networks, and technological sophistication — all domains where the U.S. remains ahead.
While China’s regional power has grown, claims suggesting the U.S. has lost supremacy in the Indo-Pacific are premature. The PLAN surpasses the U.S. Navy in ship quantity, but the U.S. still leads in quality, deployment flexibility, and interoperability. The original article’s framing tends toward dramatization without fully balancing these nuances.
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Link to Original Article
Read the full article on BBC News
